As the schmedia continues to proclaim Obama the sure winner of the Democratic nomination, let UncleNutJob point a few things out that are being left mostly unsaid…
1st of all, including Florida and Michigan, Hillary Clinton has the most total popular vote. She has won 19 primaries, while Obama has only won 15. Obama did dominate the caucuses, however, the majority of those states are long-time Republican strongholds which neither he or Hillary will be able to win in the general election. Speaking of the general election, most of us are aware of the stupid Electoral College format. For those who are not, the general election is won by accumulating at least 270 ‘points’. These points are distributed state-by-state based loosely on population in a “winner-take-all” format. As an example, Vermont has 3 compared to 55 for California. The top 7 state totals are as follows: California (55), Texas (34), New York (31), Florida (27), Pennsylvania (21), Illinois (21) and Ohio (20). Of these CRUCIAL states, Hillary has won 6, Obama 1 (Illinois). Current polls show either Hillary or Obama will defeat McCain in Illinois during the general election. In addition, Hillary’s 19 primary victories total 329 Electoral votes while Obama’s 15 equal only 133. If you give him ALL the caucus states (most of which will vote Republican), that total reaches only 202.
Don’t let these numbers mislead you, as some states these Democrats won during the primaries will not vote for either Democrat in November. Current polls show that in a head-to-head match, Hillary has around 210 Electoral votes verses McCain, while Obama holds only 195. The remaining states in each case are either Rebublican or “swing states.” These swing states are currently too close to call for either a donkey or an elephant.


http://www.270towin.com/2008_polls/mccain_clinton/ Strong Dem—101, Leaning Dem—138, Strong Repub– 60, Leaning Repub-108

Swing states—Washington, Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconson, Michigan, Kentucky, W. Virginia, N. Carolina, Delaware, New Jersey, Connecticut, New Hampshire and Hawaii.

http://www.270towin.com/2008_polls/mccain_obama/ Strong Dem—69, Leaning Dem—139, Strong Repub– 60, Leaning Repub-91

Swing states—N. Dakota, Texas, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Florida, N. Carolina, S. Carolina, New Jersey and Massachusetts.

There are a few states that are referred to as “bell-weather’ states. This means these states are considered to be EXTREMELY accurate gauges determining the outcome of the general election. The top 3 in this category are Ohio, Florida and Kentucky. As an example, since 1912, Ohio has voted for the winner EVERY TIME except one. In addition, NO Democrat has ever won the election without collecting BOTH Ohio and Kentucky. This year, Hillary has won ALL 3 state’s primaries. In the head-to-head verses McCain, polls show Obama losing to McCain in Kentucky, while Ohio and Florida are considered “swing.” In contrast, Hillary would win Ohio and Florida, while Kentucky lies as a “swing state.” Again, the clear advantage is Hillary.

Another key category momentum. While the schmedia continues to bash Clinton for staying in a race she ‘can’t win’, she has taken the last 3 out of 4, 4 out of 6, 5 out of 8 and 7 out of 10. These include such powerhouses as Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas.

To recap, Hillary has the advantage in popular vote, total primaries, likely electoral college votes and momentum. This has all happened in a race where she had to continually endure the “it’s all over for Clinton” cries from the schmedia. If UncleNutJob can figure this out, wouldn’t you think some of the political ‘lifers’ in the Democratic party might be talking about this as the national convention approaches?