Welcome to the home of UncleNutJob. Make this your portal to all things important. I will continue to work towards my goal of organized accumulation...mixed with my 3 cents (soon to be worth only 2)... I hereby vow to provide you with an EXTREMELY biased view on topics like: The Election, International Finance and Banking, Organized Religion, Military, and more....

Wednesday, February 6, 2008

A "First" that no-one's talking about...

Let me explain how nobody's vote in the primaries meant anything.
In order to "win" or capture the Democratic nomination, a candidate MUST EARN 2025 delegate votes. These, like electoral college votes, are dispersed in varying amounts amongst the individual states (and territories).
After Super-Duper-Ginormous Tuesday, the count stands as follows:

Hillary - 823
Obama - 741

Neither candidate is even half-way there. More than half of the states have already had primaries including California and New York which have large amounts of total delegate votes.

Unless one of them concedes, neither will make the official finish line. When this happens, it goes to the Democratic National Convention. At this point, it is handed over to the Super-delegates. (Governors, Senators, etc). Ultimately, it is what these select few decide, regardless of the total outcome in the primaries. Hypothetically, if Obama were to finish strong and surpass Hillary in total delegate votes, he most likely would not have 2025 total. Therefore, when reverting back to the Super-delegates, Hillary could be selected.
In fact, as I have been talking about for awhile, Hillary started of with an estimated 100pt lead in 'Supers.' On Monday, most front page (paper/website) delegate counts showed Obama AHEAD of Hillary. I believe it was what, 63 - 48? When in reality it was Hillary 200+ - Obama 120ish. Now we finally see the total (including supers) being reported.

On the Republican side, we have the following:

McCain - 680
Romney - 270
Huckabee - 176
Paul - 16

The magic number for the Republicans is 1191. So McCain is within reach. He solidified this by dominating the "winner-take-all" states. However, as neither Romney or Huckabee sounds willing to fold their cards, there's no guarentee. If they continue to hack up the votes, this race too could be decided at the Republican National Convention...NOT BY CITIZEN VOTE! Just think, we could actually have two "official" A or B candidates that are not who the popular vote deemed the winner. Sound familiar? It could happen. The Republicans could concede that McCain is too nutty, or at least that he couldn't pull enough of the conservative vote. If they chose to, they could select Romney with Huckabee as VP, and offer McCain a post and some extra grease for the future. On the Democratic side, if Obama actually nudges Hillary out by a few delegate votes, the 'Supers' will fall in Hillary's favor.
Remember, this to illustrate possibility, not probability. Likely, Hillary will retain her lead while falling short of the official finishing line. In this scenario, it will appear a mere 'formality' that the "Supers" approve the same candidate the citizens voted for.
McCain will likely receive the 1191 he needs to secure the nomination.

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